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玉米: 供应缺口预期持续强化 价格重心大幅抬高
发布日期: 2020-08-06 浏览次数: 字号: [ ]

 

yb体育jinqiguoneiyumishichangyanxujiaotouhuobaoxingqing,zailinchukucunjiandiyijixuqiuchixuxianghaodeyuqixia,linchushilianpaiweichigaoyijiajumian,yumishichangkanzhangqingxugaozhang。yumiqihuo2009heyuebujudiaokongzhengceqianzhi,lianpoduogezhongyaoguankou,yinianneigaojiazitaijinrujiaogeyuedegailvchixuzengjia,bingjiangdaidongbaokuoxinjiyumizaineidezhenggeyumishichangdejiagezhongxinshangsheng。

国内玉米库存大量回流市场,供应缺口预期持续强化

genjuguojianongyenongcunbudepinggu, 2020/2021niandu,zhongguoyumichanliangwei2.67yidun,zengjia574wandun;xiaofeiliangwei2.85yidun,zengjia717wandun。guoneiyumishichangyanxujinjiniandexinzengchanliangdiyuxiaofeiliangdejibengeju。youyuqianxienianguojiashougoudaliangyumizuoweilinshichubei,guoneiyumigongyingquekoudebuchongzhuyaolaizilinchupaimai,chongzudelinchukucunhezhengfuzhangwodediaokongshouduanshiyumishichangxingchengjiagetianhuaban。jingguozuijinjinianlianxudequkucunzhihou,linchuyumikucunzhujianjiandi,shichangduiweilaiguoneiyumigongyingquekoudedanyouchixushengwen,zheiyeshizaocheng2020nianyumishichangyuepaiyuezhangdezhuyaoyuanyin。

 

临储拍卖成交火爆,市场看涨预期持续升温

juyeneifenxijigoupinggu,jiezhi2019niannianmo,guoneilinchuyumijieyukucunliangyue5600wandun。2020nianyumishoulunpaimaizi5yue28riqidongyilai,muqianyicixingchubeiyulinchupaimaiyijinxing10ci,shichangxuqiuzhuticanyureqinggaozhang,jishiweiyizhitoujixingweierxiugaijiaoyiguizehouyeweinengzuzhiyumipaimaichengjiaojiagezougao,leijichengjiaoliangdadao4000wandun。anzhaomuqiandepaimaijindu,zaiyou4cipaimai,linchuyumikucunjiukenengshouqing。yumipaimairedubujianshiliutonghuanjieliangyuangongyingbuzuyushichangdanyouweilaiyumigongyingquekoudegongtongjieguo。

生猪存栏持续恢复,需求端对玉米价格支撑力提升

yb体育shouguoneishengzhuyangzhilirunweichigaoweiyijigexiangfuchizhengceluxudaoweiyingxiang,guoneishengzhufuyangjinduchixugaishan。guojianongyenongcunbudeshujuxianshi,nengfanmuzhucunlanzi2019nian10yuekaishijiandihuisheng,5yuefennengfanmuzhucunlanhuanbizengzhang3.9%,shixianlianxu8geyuezengzhang;5yuefenquanguoshengzhucunlanhuanbizengzhang3.9%,lianxu4geyuezengzhang。yeneijigouyuji,dao2020niannianmoguoneishengzhucunlanliangjiangzengzhi2.7yitou,tongbizengzhang30%zuoyou,jibendadaofeizhouzhuwenbaofaqiande2019nian7yuefenshuiping。qinliaofangmian,suiranerjiduyangzhilirunxiahua,danyouyucunlanjishujiaogao,sanjiduguoneiqinliaoxiaofeizongtijiaoweiwending。zhengtilaikan,xiabannianguoneisiliaoxiaofeixingshiyouwanghaoyushangbannian,siliaoxuqiuduiyumijiageyouzhengxianglashengzuoyong。

近期国内玉米市场展望

随着玉米临储拍卖的持续推进,市场对政策性储备玉米库存见底的预期将更加强烈,是支撑玉米价格重心保持高位运行的重要原因。与此同时,玉米市场不断浮现的利空因素将增加玉米价格继续冲高的难度。东北主产区前期受旱地区天气条件改善,降低玉米减产的炒作情绪,而主产区新玉米上市周期缩短,远期供应形势将明显好转;进口玉米采购节奏加快,从目前对乌克兰和美国玉米的采购动向看,2020年全年进口玉米预计将突破720万吨的配额限制达到1000万吨左右,大麦、高粱等玉米替代品进口量也有望增加;拍卖玉米陆续进入生产环节,过高的玉米原料成本将增加下游产品的销售压力,高价对需求的不利影响也将陆续体现。整体来看,国内玉米市场经过几波大涨后市场仍保持强势运行,玉米2009期货合约高位进入交割月的概率较大。随着市场利多预期逐渐消化,尤其是新季玉米的供应压力将增加玉米2101合约的上行难度,但由于临储玉米调控市场能力大幅下降,国内玉米价格重心将大幅提高,2100元/吨有望成为玉米2101合约的重要支撑。(来源:yb体育_官网 )

 




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